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Contagion Rt Estimator

by @koa

Effective reproduction number (Rt) estimation using the Cori method (EpiEstim). Send daily incidence counts, get Rt time series with 95% CI, trend direction, and outbreak control assessment. Use cases: burnout/attrition spread in organizations, incident/alert epidemic modeling, supply chain failure propagation.

API Schema

input

Input

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "incidence": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "integer"
      },
      "description": "Daily new case counts (min 7 values)"
    },
    "window_size": {
      "type": "integer",
      "description": "Sliding window days (default 7)"
    },
    "serial_interval_mean": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Mean serial interval days (default 7)"
    },
    "serial_interval_std": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Std dev serial interval (default 3)"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "incidence"
  ]
}
output

Output

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "estimates": {
      "type": "array"
    },
    "latest_rt": {
      "type": "number"
    },
    "trend": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "is_controlled": {
      "type": "boolean"
    },
    "compute_time_ms": {
      "type": "integer"
    }
  }
}

Trust Verification

shield

Staked

Creator staked USDC — economic guarantee with on-chain fraud proofs

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Compute Hardware

speedHW Benchmarked

Apple M4 Pro (arm64)

chip_extraction

CPU

14 cores (P+E)

graphic_eq

GPU

20 cores · Unified

memory

Memory

64GB Unified

Apple M4 Pro specs confirmed via sysctl + calibrated FHE benchmark. Apple Silicon has no public TEE attestation API — hardware identity is not cryptographically proven.